Dan Auito
03-31-2005, 11:57 PM
Economist Sees Real Estate Market Slow Down Throughout State; Analysis from County-Specific Real Estate Indexes Provided by Local Real Estate Councils
ORLANDO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 31, 2005--Dr. Hank Fishkind, one of Florida's premier economic consultants, said today the peak of Florida's most recent real estate boom was reached in the late spring, early summer of 2004.
"With mortgage rates going up, it's highly unlikely that we will see a better season for home sales in Florida than we saw in the spring and summer of 2004," said Dr. Fishkind, principal of Fishkind & Associates. "There has been a slow decline in home sales ever since, in almost every region of the state. What we're seeing now is a leveling off of what has been a tremendous run for home sales in Florida."
The region-specific Index data Fishkind used to reach his conclusion is being housed on recently-created Web sites for local real estate councils in the surrounding metro areas of Miami-Dade County, Tampa/St. Petersburg, Orlando, Palm Beach County and Broward County. The real estate councils - member organizations comprised of local real estate attorneys - have set up Web sites to offer critical data to consumers and real estate professionals on a regional level.
Citing the real estate council indexes, Fishkind said while activity was very strong in January 2005 in the greater Orlando market, a review of the closings shows it peaked last year. In January 2005, there were 3,864 closings of existing single-family homes, down sharply from the July 2004 peak of 5,005 closings. Sales of both new and existing condominiums were buoyant in January 2005 with closing volumes of 262 units and 370 units respectively. But, these totals are off sharply from their spring 2004 peaks of 382 units and 495 units. Only sales of new single-family homes were higher in January 2005 than their 2004 peak with 2,008 closings.
The Tampa-St. Petersburg markets displays similar trends with strong housing market activity in January, but not as strong as 2004. For instance, new home closings totaled 1,327 in January 2005 down from their peak of 1,376 posted in June 2004. Existing home closings were a strong 4,661 in January 2005, but this, too, is down from the 6,154 reached in May 2004.
The Miami-Dade County market was similar. With 509 new home closings, January 2005 was a good month, but it was far weaker than July 2004 when 647 units closed. Existing home closings totaled 2,603 this past January, but this is down sharply from 3,473 closings in June 2004. Only the county's red-hot condominium market remained strong in January. New unit closings totaled 1,492 units in January off only slightly from the 1,581 closings in December. Ominously the closing volume for existing condominium homes has declined almost continuously from their May 2004 peak of 2,492 units to just 1,640 units in January 2005.
Like most others throughout the state, the pattern in the Palm Beach County market is the same. There were 711 new homes closed in January 2005, but this is down from a peak of 786 in May 2004. Existing home sales have declined to 2,088 units in January 2005 from 3,271 in May 2004. Even Palm Beach's condominium market has cooled. This January, closing volume for new units was only 1,084 down from 1,697 reached in April 2004. Similarly, closings of existing units dropped to 403 units in January compared to 660 in June 2004.
This pattern is repeated across almost every single market and every type of residential real estate product in Florida.
Fishkind's assessment came from detailed analysis of the exhaustive statewide housing and condo data provided by Orlando-based Attorneys' Title Insurance Fund, Florida's leading title insurance underwriter. Fishkind reviewed all historical land deed data involving home and condo closings through out Florida, which includes everything from traditional closings to for-sale-by-owner transactions.
The real estate councils in Miami, Tampa-St. Petersburg, Orlando, Palm Beach County and Broward County recently launched their Web sites. The sites for each council includes the Real Estate Index; upcoming real estate events, such as homebuyer seminars; pertinent market information, including school districts, government listings and local real estate associations; recent local real estate news and articles; and a list of local real estate attorneys. All data on the Web sites is available at no cost to visitors.
-- The Miami/Dade Real Estate Index is housed on the Attorneys' Real Estate Council of Miami Dade (AREC) Web site at www.miamidaderec.com.
-- The Tampa/St. Petersburg Real Estate Index is housed on the Bay Area Real Estate Council Web site at www.barec.com.
-- The Orlando Real Estate Index is housed on the Greater Orlando Real Estate Council Web site at www.go-rec.com.
-- The Palm Beach County Real Estate Index is housed on the Palm Beach County Attorneys' Real Estate Council Web site at www.palmbeachrec.com.
-- The Broward County Real Estate Index is housed on the Broward County Attorneys' Real Estate Council Web site at www.browardrec.com.
The Real Estate Indexes are updated each month and available on the Web sites mentioned above.
Here is the place to go when you are willing to pay to know!
http://www.fishkind.com/sitemap.html
ORLANDO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 31, 2005--Dr. Hank Fishkind, one of Florida's premier economic consultants, said today the peak of Florida's most recent real estate boom was reached in the late spring, early summer of 2004.
"With mortgage rates going up, it's highly unlikely that we will see a better season for home sales in Florida than we saw in the spring and summer of 2004," said Dr. Fishkind, principal of Fishkind & Associates. "There has been a slow decline in home sales ever since, in almost every region of the state. What we're seeing now is a leveling off of what has been a tremendous run for home sales in Florida."
The region-specific Index data Fishkind used to reach his conclusion is being housed on recently-created Web sites for local real estate councils in the surrounding metro areas of Miami-Dade County, Tampa/St. Petersburg, Orlando, Palm Beach County and Broward County. The real estate councils - member organizations comprised of local real estate attorneys - have set up Web sites to offer critical data to consumers and real estate professionals on a regional level.
Citing the real estate council indexes, Fishkind said while activity was very strong in January 2005 in the greater Orlando market, a review of the closings shows it peaked last year. In January 2005, there were 3,864 closings of existing single-family homes, down sharply from the July 2004 peak of 5,005 closings. Sales of both new and existing condominiums were buoyant in January 2005 with closing volumes of 262 units and 370 units respectively. But, these totals are off sharply from their spring 2004 peaks of 382 units and 495 units. Only sales of new single-family homes were higher in January 2005 than their 2004 peak with 2,008 closings.
The Tampa-St. Petersburg markets displays similar trends with strong housing market activity in January, but not as strong as 2004. For instance, new home closings totaled 1,327 in January 2005 down from their peak of 1,376 posted in June 2004. Existing home closings were a strong 4,661 in January 2005, but this, too, is down from the 6,154 reached in May 2004.
The Miami-Dade County market was similar. With 509 new home closings, January 2005 was a good month, but it was far weaker than July 2004 when 647 units closed. Existing home closings totaled 2,603 this past January, but this is down sharply from 3,473 closings in June 2004. Only the county's red-hot condominium market remained strong in January. New unit closings totaled 1,492 units in January off only slightly from the 1,581 closings in December. Ominously the closing volume for existing condominium homes has declined almost continuously from their May 2004 peak of 2,492 units to just 1,640 units in January 2005.
Like most others throughout the state, the pattern in the Palm Beach County market is the same. There were 711 new homes closed in January 2005, but this is down from a peak of 786 in May 2004. Existing home sales have declined to 2,088 units in January 2005 from 3,271 in May 2004. Even Palm Beach's condominium market has cooled. This January, closing volume for new units was only 1,084 down from 1,697 reached in April 2004. Similarly, closings of existing units dropped to 403 units in January compared to 660 in June 2004.
This pattern is repeated across almost every single market and every type of residential real estate product in Florida.
Fishkind's assessment came from detailed analysis of the exhaustive statewide housing and condo data provided by Orlando-based Attorneys' Title Insurance Fund, Florida's leading title insurance underwriter. Fishkind reviewed all historical land deed data involving home and condo closings through out Florida, which includes everything from traditional closings to for-sale-by-owner transactions.
The real estate councils in Miami, Tampa-St. Petersburg, Orlando, Palm Beach County and Broward County recently launched their Web sites. The sites for each council includes the Real Estate Index; upcoming real estate events, such as homebuyer seminars; pertinent market information, including school districts, government listings and local real estate associations; recent local real estate news and articles; and a list of local real estate attorneys. All data on the Web sites is available at no cost to visitors.
-- The Miami/Dade Real Estate Index is housed on the Attorneys' Real Estate Council of Miami Dade (AREC) Web site at www.miamidaderec.com.
-- The Tampa/St. Petersburg Real Estate Index is housed on the Bay Area Real Estate Council Web site at www.barec.com.
-- The Orlando Real Estate Index is housed on the Greater Orlando Real Estate Council Web site at www.go-rec.com.
-- The Palm Beach County Real Estate Index is housed on the Palm Beach County Attorneys' Real Estate Council Web site at www.palmbeachrec.com.
-- The Broward County Real Estate Index is housed on the Broward County Attorneys' Real Estate Council Web site at www.browardrec.com.
The Real Estate Indexes are updated each month and available on the Web sites mentioned above.
Here is the place to go when you are willing to pay to know!
http://www.fishkind.com/sitemap.html