With the price of fuel..

[Spike]

rasing every other day,do any of you think that home sales are going to drop big time??
I noticed that the home south of one of my rentals that was rehabed back in Dec.,is still on the market.Are rehabers having a hard time selling their homes??
Are rehabers still buying new projects??
I believe that people will start moving back to the bigger cities due to gas prices.I believe that the renters will be the first to go.On that note,I also believe that the home sales in the cities will continue for awhile.Am I correct??
BTW,this house is in Tulsa.
I am wanting to step out and start wholesaling.I am in need of a buyers list (any list online?)and would like to start with a partner.I can't believe that I am having such a hard time finding someone that is willing to do this with me.I have full time to donate and would like someone to be able to work side by side for awhile.I know this will work,but am having a hard time getting started.
Any input will help.Thanks.

[dealmaker]

Actually the temporary "shock" of the jump in gas prices is felt by everyone, but we "adjust" our brains and get used to it. Gas prices are NOT at all time highs as some would have you believe, in real (inflation adjusted) terms I think they were higher in the early '80s.

After the first "oil shock" in '73 and then the second in '79 I figured that "now we'll learn". Everyone was selling big cars, insulating their houses, etc, etc. And, we actually drove DOWN our gasoline use, on a "miles driven" basis. In fact had we continued to improve our NATIONAL FLEET AVERAGE mileage at the same rate from '92 to the present as we did from '74 to '92 WE WOULD NOT BE IMPORTING OIL FROM THE MIDEAST TODAY, or very little.

That improvement from '74 to '92 was caused by a combination of technology (more fuel efficient engines/lighter cars) and a CHANGE IN CONSUMPTION HABITS. Honda and Toyota moved into # 1 & 2 in sales. Unfortunately the change from '92 to the present was caused by nothing more than a CHANGE IN CONSUMPTION. Engines actually have continued to get more fuel efficient, but people are now buying, NAVIGATORS, ESCALADES, EXCURSIONS, SUBURBANS, DODGE RAMS, in record numbers.

OK, that's the end of the macroeconomics lesson. Now for what I think will happen. I don't think people will move back into cities. Sure, some will. The "yuppiefication" and loft building in some cities is going great guns. But IMO most people want a bit of yard, and the feeling that suburban schools are better than inner city schools. Selling a house and moving is a wrenching experience. Selling a Ford Excursion and replacing it with a Subaru Forester or even a Lexus RX 330 is much easier. Where you live isn't just a building, it's your friends and neighbors, local stores, kid's involvement in sports and scouts, it's the church you attend, and it's the grass you've mowed and the patio cover you built.

I don't think gas at $2.25 will change that. Now, were we (the US) to price that gallon of gas at what it actually costs US, that might change things.

Just my opinion.

dealmaker